Is The Trade Desk Building the Next Monopoly?

Alright, let’s talk about Jeff Green for a second. He’s positioned himself as the adtech industry’s White Knight, calling for Google’s breakup like he’s trying to save us all from the dark side. But while we’re all clapping for the anti-Google crusader, behind the scenes, Green and his team at The Trade Desk are quietly setting up what could be the next big monopoly. And, honestly, it’s brilliant—borderline evil genius. Let’s dig into why The Trade Desk might be aiming to own the connected TV (CTV) space in ways that look uncomfortably similar to the monopolistic behavior Jeff Green supposedly detests.
And I like Jeff Green -- but I have the luxury of not being owned by the adtech companies and don't have to be some weird cheerleader that constantly promotes adtech companies like they are some electronic savior.

The Trade Desk’s Meteoric Rise: From Underdog to Adtech Powerhouse

The Trade Desk is no longer the underdog it once was. When Jeff Green took the company public in 2016, it was hailed as the fresh, independent alternative to the ad giants like Google and Meta. But fast forward a few years, and it’s a billion-dollar behemoth, growing at a compound annual rate of 46% and now pulling in over $1.5 billion in revenue in 2023. Not too shabby for the supposed little guy, right?

But as The Trade Desk’s profits soared, so did its ambitions. Nowhere is that clearer than with their moves in connected TV (CTV), where The Trade Desk is building a fortress, inching closer to locking down the entire space—from ad buying to data collection to content distribution. The independent DSP that was once just a tool for advertisers is now looking like a titan-in-the-making.

Project Bridgewater: The Not-So-Secret Weapon

Here’s where things get really juicy. Rumor has it that The Trade Desk has been quietly developing its own smart TV operating system, codenamed Project Bridgewater. Sound familiar? It should. It’s basically what Google did with Android to dominate the mobile ad space, except now The Trade Desk is eyeing connected TV. They’ve reportedly been working on this for years, making deals with hardware manufacturers, and offering sweet revenue-sharing terms that could lure them away from competitors like Roku and Amazon.

Let’s not sugarcoat it—if The Trade Desk succeeds, they’ll control not only the ad space but also the platform itself. And that means control over the first-party data gold mine that every advertiser craves. In a world where cookies are going extinct and privacy regulations are tightening, owning the OS is like being the only one with a key to the candy store. First-party data on what people watch, how they shop, and what they browse? Yep, they’ll have it all.

"Pure Evil Genius": The Viant Take

While The Trade Desk’s rise seems inevitable, not everyone’s happy about it. Chris Vanderhook, COO of Viant, dropped a serious bombshell when he basically accused The Trade Desk of plotting to monopolize the CTV space. Vanderhook’s take? The Trade Desk is following Google’s footsteps, trying to create a full-stack, closed-loop adtech ecosystem that controls everything from content to data to ads. According to him, The Trade Desk is on the path to owning it all—just like Google did with DoubleClick.

Vanderhook wasn’t exactly subtle about it either. He dubbed the move “pure evil genius,” suggesting that Jeff Green’s ultimate plan is to create a TV OS with better economics, slap on a content management system, and add identity tools like Unified ID 2.0 to wrap it all in a bow. That would give The Trade Desk control over ad delivery, content distribution, and data collection. Monopoly, much?

Unified ID 2.0: Google 2.0?

Speaking of Unified ID 2.0, let’s talk about this next piece of the puzzle. While it’s been hailed as a cookie-less solution for the future of advertising, it’s also setting up The Trade Desk to become the ultimate gatekeeper. The idea is that UID 2.0 will help advertisers bypass the data apocalypse as cookies disappear. Instead, hashed email addresses become the new identity signal for tracking users across the web and CTV. Sounds like a good plan, right?

Not so fast. The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) recently dropped a pretty strong warning about hashed emails, basically saying, “Yeah, this doesn’t make your data anonymous, sorry.” So, while Green is busy promoting UID 2.0 as the antidote to privacy issues, the reality is The Trade Desk is positioning itself to own a huge chunk of the ad market by controlling user identities across devices and platforms. It’s a clever move, sure, but it’s also starting to look a lot like the kind of closed-loop system Google got busted for.

Control and Data: The Ultimate Endgame

If we’re being real, this all comes down to one thing: control. Jeff Green may have started out fighting against Google’s dominance, but The Trade Desk’s recent moves—especially with Project Bridgewater and Unified ID 2.0—suggest they’re building a kingdom of their own. They don’t just want to buy ads; they want to own the entire supply chain, from content to data to delivery.

The plan is clear. First, get hardware manufacturers on board with a smart TV OS that gives them better revenue deals. Then, collect first-party data directly from those TVs, feeding it into the UID 2.0 machine. Finally, reduce the need for third-party middlemen by using their own stack to control everything from pricing to ad distribution. If The Trade Desk can pull it off, they’ll not only compete with Google but could surpass it in the CTV space. And that’s where things start looking less like the “good guy” Jeff Green wants to be, and more like a power play for market dominance.

The Bottom Line: David or Goliath?

Look, Jeff Green has always positioned The Trade Desk as the anti-Google, the independent upstart fighting for transparency and fairness in a world dominated by walled gardens. But the reality is that The Trade Desk is no longer the scrappy underdog. With moves like Project Bridgewater and Unified ID 2.0, Green is gunning for something much bigger—a CTV monopoly that could rival Google’s dominance in web advertising.

So, is The Trade Desk the next monopoly? Maybe not yet, but they’re certainly planting the seeds. And if they succeed, we might all be looking back at Jeff Green’s anti-Google crusade with a bit of irony. After all, it’s not just about who’s the bad guy—it’s about who gets to be king.

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