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The Great Attribution Illusion:
A Marketer’s Modern-Day Haunting
Attribution in marketing is a specter that haunts the digital corridors with promises and pitfalls alike—a phantom stitched together by algorithms and assumptions. As we navigate this shadowy realm, six oracles of the industry offer their insights, sometimes biting, other times bemused, about the true nature of this elusive beast. Judy Shapiro, CEO of engageSimply, casts a critical eye back to the predigital era, her words echoing like a ghost of marketing past. “Predigital, measuring marketing ROI [was] simple,” she says, recalling a time when P&G’s annual brand business reviews consisted of a mere “two-page review document with no attribution charts in sight.” Yet, as digital advertising swelled, so did the complexity of attribution, unleashing what Shapiro calls “the great attribution wars,”
where models like first touch, last touch, and the enigmatic U and W series became weapons of choice, often “more confusing than insightful.” Paul Knegten, the Adtech CMO of legend, delves deeper into this apparition. “The challenge with attribution is not cookies,” he suggests, dismissing the technical jargon. Instead, he turns to the human element, the “weird spongy organ” of the brain. He questions the very nature of consumer
decisions with a provocative thought experiment: “Did I buy it because I searched for it, or did I search because I wanted to buy it?” This inquiry casts doubt on the linear narratives spun by attribution models, suggesting they may be mere illusions of causality. Enter the Adtech God, deity of DSPs, who paints attribution as a puzzle with all pieces flipped down, a riddle wrapped in the enigma of cross-device behavior. “Dealing
with cross-device tracking and data integration is no joke,” they proclaim, likening the task to corralling a drunken ensemble of friends, each using a different chat app, to plan a trip. The metaphor is biting—what are we really tracking in marketing, and what is simply the misfiring of disconnected data points? Pesach Lattin, Publisher at ADOTAT, casts a long shadow on the history of attribution, tracing its roots back to the
early 1900s. Yet, he brings to light the fallacies that plague modern digital attribution, informed by the insights of Les Binet. “The fallacy of immediacy,” “the fallacy of last-touch,” and “the fallacy of first-touch” are but a few of the ghost stories told to marketers. Binet’s wisdom is a stark warning against the “smoke and mirrors” that often conceal the true effectiveness of advertising. Dave Morgan, Founder of
Simulmedia, doesn’t mince words when he describes attribution as the “most important — and abused” element of digital advertising. He accuses the industry of peddling snake oil, selling an overhyped notion of attribution that’s bolstered by “fancy dashboards” and “fancy talk” rather than tangible results. He presents a sobering perspective: if we were to believe the attribution reports, we’d be convinced that marketing spend outstrips the Gross Domestic Product of nations. Joe Zappa from Sharp Pen Media declares the death of the 360-degree view of the customer, a concept that has become “technically impossible” and widely unpalatable to privacy-seeking consumers. The shift toward probabilistic audience modeling and AI/ML, he notes, is more a resignation to the limitations of data than a step forward. Jason Fairchild, Co-Founder and CEO of
TVScientific, sees a glimmer of hope, a potential renaissance in TV attribution akin to applying Newton’s Third Law to advertising. Yet, one can’t help but wonder, given the disillusionment voiced by his peers, whether this renaissance will materialize or remain as intangible as the concept of attribution itself. In this chiaroscuro of insights, attribution emerges not as a concrete pillar of marketing but as a will-o’-the-wisp,
leading marketers through a quagmire of data and technology. The question looms large: Is attribution the solid ground of marketing strategy or merely a specter of our digital desires, a ghost in the machine of modern advertising? READ THE FULL DOCUMENT PDF
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All the news you need today, in a format that isn't TL:DR summarized for the busy executive.
🚗💾 Senator Ed Markey (D-Massachusetts) is on a mission against car companies' "Big Brother" tactics! 🕵️♂️🛑 He's waving a red flag about how these high-tech, four-wheeled computers might be spying on us, from our location to our hobbies, and even our love lives. 😱💔 Markey, alarmed by Mozilla's "cars are a privacy nightmare" report, penned a stern letter to 14
car CEOs, warning them about selling our secrets to data brokers. 📨🚨 He's probing them with tough questions about their data-hungry ways, especially about collecting more than needed and sharing it with third parties. 🤔❓ Markey's basically asking, "Hey, are our cars turning into peeping Toms?" 🚘👀
📊🚀 "Everything old is new again, but with a high-tech twist!" says the OAAA, giving a hat-tip to AI and machine learning for making Media Mix
Modeling (MMM) the new/old darling in advertising. 🌟💡 Anna Bager, the CEO who probably loves pie charts as much as real pie, suggests cranking up Out-of-Home (OOH) advertising budgets for better brand buzz. 📈🎯 According to their time-traveling data analysis (2017-2022), bumping up OOH spend is like adding extra hot sauce to your marketing strategy: it just makes everything better! 🌶️💰
📲🚀 Meta's new kid
on the block, Threads, is zooming past X (aka the app formerly known as Twitter) in the app download race! 🏎️💨 According to Apptopia, Threads is getting all the love with a whopping 41 million downloads, overshadowing X's 27 million since September. 🌍📈 The twist? Most of Threads' fans are from India, not the U.S.! 🇮🇳🌟 Meanwhile, X is experiencing a bit of an identity crisis and a not-so-warm reception post-rebranding, dropping from a top app to "where did it go?" in the rankings.
📉😕 As advertisers give X the cold shoulder, all eyes are on Threads to see if it becomes the new advertising sweetheart once Meta rolls out the red carpet for ads. 🌟🤔
📰🤔 Meta's Threads, the newbie rival to X (formerly Twitter), is getting a cautious side-eye from news publishers. 🧐📉 Despite seeing some engagement growth, big names like The Boston Globe, CNN, and The New York Times are playing it cool, not ready to dive in just yet.
🏊♂️🚫 They're all about "show me the data," but Threads is keeping its cards close, offering limited metrics. 📊🙈 Meanwhile, the BBC and the Guardian U.S. are hitting pause, questioning if Threads is worth the hustle. 🛑🤷♂️ With the 2024 election cycle looming, newsrooms are wondering: Will Threads be the next big thing for breaking news, or just another platform in the social media sea? 🌊🔍 Meta's pushing forward, planning to launch Threads in Europe, but will news orgs bite? 🌍🎣 Only
time will tell if Threads will weave its way into the heart of news distribution. ⏰❤️ (Digiday)
Magna, part of IPG Mediabrands, just updated its U.S. ad spending forecast, giving it a slight boost for 2023 and 2024 📈. Despite a sharp drop from its initial 2022 prediction, the outlook has been on the upswing since hitting a low in mid-2023. The revised figures,
including cyclical events like politics and the Olympics, show a 5.4% rise in 2023 and a 5.9% increase in 2024 🎉. Ex-cyclical estimates mirror this upward trend. Magna leads the Big 4 holding companies in releasing these numbers, with others soon to follow. Their optimism is echoed by ex-Magna and GroupM forecaster Brian Wieser, who also sees a brightening ad economy. According to Magna, this rebound is driven by a second-half surge in 2023, easier comparisons year-over-year, and a stabilizing
economy. Notably, pure-play digital advertising is thriving with double-digit growth, while traditional media faces a 4% dip in ad spending 💻📉. Elon Musk's recent escapade at the DealBook conference in New York has turned X's (formerly Twitter) ad scene into a real-life drama 🎭. After Musk's eyebrow-raising tweets and comments, major advertisers like IBM, Apple, CNN, and
Disney are hitting the 'unfollow' button on X 🚪🏃♂️. It's like a bad breakup, but on a corporate scale! Musk's response? A shrug and a "whatever" attitude, as if he's the main character in a teen movie 🤷♂️🍿. Meanwhile, X's staff, not keen on this script, are dropping their roles faster than a hot potato 🥔💨. With a whopping 55% plunge in revenue and CEO Linda Yaccarino's efforts looking more like climbing Everest 🏔️, X's ad saga is less 'happily ever after' and more 'to be continued...?'
📉🤔.
🍪🔍 Google's VP of Global Advertising, Dan Taylor, stays cool under pressure with DOJ's antitrust suit and the cookie-less future of Chrome. On the Digiday Podcast, he's like a tech maestro conducting an orchestra, assuring that third-party cookies will exit stage left by end of 2024, no matter what. 🎵🚫 Despite the legal drama, Taylor's team is busy testing new privacy-friendly alternatives, like
Topics API, promising almost the same ad magic without the privacy concerns. 🕵️♂️💡 He's like a tech-world Gandalf, confidently navigating through the storm of economic and geopolitical uncertainties, committed to helping partners hit their targets. 🧙♂️🌪️ In the world of online ads, it's out with the old (cookies) and in with the new (APIs), and Taylor's message is clear: adapt or be left behind! 🚀🆕
In the
wild west of Connected TV (CTV) advertising, it's a bit of a rollercoaster 🎢 for the big guns, including Fortune 500 companies. Peer39's latest scoop reveals that nearly half of ads on divisive channels belong to these giants, while a sneaky 37% have found their way into the realm of fake content 🕵️♂️📺. It's like advertisers are at a masquerade ball, dancing with masked imposters! The quest for the right ad space in CTV is turning into a game of digital dodgeball, where dodging fake
and divisive content is the new norm 🎯💥.
At Disney's Tech & Data Showcase, it's like they waved a magic wand over their ad strategy 🪄✨. Their Unified Ad Platform (UAD) is the new star of the show, boasting a homemade ad server and a brainy algorithm named YODA 🧠🌌. They're all in on UAD, predicting it'll handle half their ad spend by next year - talk about putting your eggs in one high-tech basket
🥚📊! With a 150% jump in demand for their ad slots, Disney's playing it cool and unique, not chasing the open web like Google or Amazon, but focusing on their own kingdom of content 🏰💻. They're like the friendly giant in the ad world, shaking hands with everyone from EDO to Samba TV, and even The Trade Desk, making it super easy for advertisers to join the Disney parade 🤝🎪. In the wild world of ads, Disney's not just playing the game; they're rewriting the playbook 📖🚀.
Domino's is dishing out $500,000 in "Plowing for Pizza" grants to keep carryout customers cozy during winter. You can win $25,000 for your city, along with winter gear 🧣❄️ and pizza gift cards 🍕. This pizza rescue mission follows their previous efforts like Apple CarPlay integration 📱🚗 and "Emergency Pizza" 🚨🍕. Kate Trumbull, Domino's Chief Brand Officer, and Matt Talbot from WorkInProgress discuss how they're
obsessed with hot pizza 🔥🍕 and willing to go the distance 🛣️. They're not afraid of long-term plans, even if it takes a year or more 🗓️, because, in the end, it's all about being top-of-mind 🧠 and delivering hot, delicious loyalty 🤝. 🍕❄️🚗🍍🌨️🎩📆🚚🔥🎁🛣️🍽️🍕
🌧️☔ The North Face had the ultimate comeback on TikTok! After a viral complaint about their "waterproof" rain jacket left a hiker soaking wet, the
brand orchestrated a jaw-dropping marketing stunt. They flew a helicopter to the top of a New Zealand mountain to deliver a rain jacket to the disappointed customer, Jenn Jensen, who had demanded an upgrade. 🚁🏔️ The North Face's response video went viral too, and now they've set a high bar for customer care in the most adventurous way possible. Is it a marketing stunt or genuine care? Either way, it's one way for brands to make a splash on social media! 💦👕 #TheNorthFace
#MarketingMagic
🦐🍤 Red Lobster's Endless Shrimp promotion caused a financial hiccup, but it's a marketing sensation! The seafood chain reported an $11 million loss for offering this popular deal "all day, every day." Surprisingly, shrimp enthusiasts went wild, with mukbangs dominating YouTube and TikTok. Competitive eaters devoured dozens of orders, and even Red Lobster skeptics like LukeFoods and Rockstar
Eater became converts, creating viral content. While it cost them millions, Red Lobster won't part with this iconic promo, just raising the price by $5 next time. Marketing lesson: Sometimes, a little financial turbulence can lead to a sea of social media success! 🌊💰 #EndlessShrimp #MarketingWin
🛍️🚨 Holiday shoppers beware! Scammers are playing Grinch by impersonating the beloved Columbus-based retailer Big Lots
online. They craft deceiving ads that mimic the real deal, tempting you with unbelievably low prices on everything from bicycles to air fryers. According to the Better Business Bureau, there are 18 fake Big Lots websites out there! 😱🎁 These cyber tricksters prey on the store's reputation and lure victims with deals that are too good to resist. But here's the tip: always double-check the URL. If it's not "biglots.com," it's a scam. The FBI reports that online retail scams cost
Americans over $73 million during the 2022 holiday season, so stay sharp and shop safely! 🌐🔒 #HolidayScams #StayAlert
🇨🇳📢 China's State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) is cracking down on online advertising with its new "Measures for the Administration of Internet Advertising." Effective from May 1, 2023, these rules are set to reshape the landscape of internet marketing in China. Notable
highlights include strict censorship for certain product categories, a strong emphasis on identifiability of advertising, and increased accountability for advertisers and publishers. The measures also target pop-up and open-screen advertising, online livestreaming promotions, and disguised advertising. 🚫💻 For businesses operating in China, this means rigorous compliance and archiving requirements to ensure that online advertising aligns with the new regulations and avoids hefty fines. It's a
digital marketing game-changer in the Middle Kingdom! 🇨🇳💼 #ChineseAdvertising #DigitalMarketingRules
Gillette's Gaming Campaign 🎮🧔✨: Gillette launches "Hit Reset with Gillette," a global campaign targeting gamers 🕹️. This initiative, part of the Gillette Gaming Alliance, encourages players to freshen up with personal care products after gaming sessions 🚿. The campaign, aligning with The Esports
Awards, includes branded content on Twitch, YouTube, and social media 📺🌐, and features top streamers showcasing their grooming routines with Gillette products 💈. This move, aimed at connecting with the growing esports market, echoes Gillette's ongoing focus on integrating with the gaming world for authentic engagement with younger audiences 👾👨💻.
Advertisers Pull Away from X (Formerly Twitter) 🚫💸🐦:
Advertisers are distancing themselves from X, formerly known as Twitter, after owner Elon Musk's derogatory comments towards brands. Many marketing agencies report that their clients are firm in not advertising on X, with some advising a complete halt in platform activity 🛑🗣️. Temporary ad pauses are likely turning permanent, especially with Musk's recent remarks at the DealBook Summit. He criticized advertisers for pulling out over content moderation concerns and an antisemitic post,
even using foul language and accusing them of blackmail 🤬🔥. Despite an apology for the post, his stance could cost X up to $75 million this quarter. Notable brands like Apple, Disney, and IBM have already paused their campaigns, while Musk's approach is making him a risky partner for advertisers, according to industry experts 🍏🏰💻. Musk acknowledged a potential bankruptcy for X if the ad boycott continues but remained defiant against pandering to brands 📉💬
🖥️📱 Invalid traffic (IVT) continues to be a thorn in the side of programmatic advertising, with a global average of 17% in Q2, as reported by Pixalate. Desktop web took the lead with a 21% IVT rate, followed by the mobile web at 16%, and mobile apps at 13%. The culprits behind 57% of invalid clicks were click farms and datacenter IVT. Mobile apps faced their share, with 20% of invalid clicks attributed to click farms. Notably, the 729 x
90 leaderboard ad size had an alarming 26% IVT rate on mobile apps. In terms of categories, health-related desktop web domains took the crown for fraudulent ad clicks at 44%, while entertainment, government, arts, and regional domains hovered around 30%. Advertisers must remain vigilant as fraudsters get craftier. 💻🤖 #AdFraud #ProgrammaticAdvertising.
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Roblox Roulette: Why Some Brands Win, and Others Just Lose
A common misconception continues to lure brands into treacherous waters: the belief that mere presence guarantees relevance, and relevance, in turn, ensures resonance. This misguided notion has led
many brands to venture into the captivating world of Roblox, a thriving digital universe, only to find themselves grappling with disappointment. The burning question arises: Why do so many brands stumble when trying to harmonize with the Roblox community? Let’s embark on a comprehensive exploration of the matter. READ MORE
NOW
OOH LA LA: THE TRANSFORMATION OF OUTDOOR ADS FROM SIMPLE TO SMART
In the labyrinth of advertising history, Out-of-Home (OOH) advertising stands like an ancient monolith, etching its story into the very walls that house our everyday lives. From the
first lease of a billboard in 1867, a time when the world was draped in the smoke of the industrial revolution, to the neon-drenched present, OOH advertising has not just survived; it has thrived, morphing with the ages, mirroring human ingenuity.
READ MORE
THE ADTECH FORECAST FOR 2024: TRENDS YOU CAN’T AFFORD TO MISS
As we approach 2024, the global advertising market is on the brink of surpassing the $1 trillion mark, marking a new era in the world of advertising technology (AdTech). This burgeoning field, a
confluence of retail, fintech, and programmatic advertising, is set to redefine the landscape of how businesses connect with their audiences. READ MORE NOW
NO MORE CREEPY ADS: THE RISE OF CONTEXTUAL TARGETING
In the ever-shifting, often bewildering universe of digital advertising, marketers are forever on the prowl for the latest tricks to mesmerize their audience while preserving their privacy. We’ve talked about
this numerous times here. In recent times, one tactic has risen steadily through the ranks – Contextual Targeting. It’s a peculiar beast, distinct from its shadowy cousin, Behavioral Targeting, in that it doesn’t stalk individual user habits but rather takes root in the contextual soil of web page content. In this expedition, we embark on a deep dive into the realm of Contextual Video Advertising, probing its innards, technological sinews, and the capricious
industry currents that shape its destiny. READ MORE NOW
Gram Glam: Unpacking Instagram's Shopping Bag of Tricks
In the vast, variegated vista of the modern internet, Instagram has slyly sidestepped into a role it was once only flirting with: the cyber Shangri-La for shoppers, a dream woven into the fabric of the
digital marketplace. As 2023 unfurls its tapestry, we find Instagram has embroidered itself into the very center, eclipsing its origin story as a humble photo-sharing app to become a titan of e-commerce hustle and bustle. READ MORE NOW!!!
ADTECH’S BUZZWORD BAKE-OFF: CAN ‘SIGNAL LOSS’ TAKE THE COOKIE’S CROWN?Picture this: You’re a high-flying marketer, charting your course through the digital skies. Your flight instruments? A plethora of data points that tell you who’s eyeballing your ads
and when. But suddenly, you’re flying blind, all thanks to a phenomenon we’re calling “Signal Loss.” Signal Loss is akin to a pilot losing their instruments mid-flight. Only instead of altitude and speed, you’re losing sight of where your customers come from. It’s like Hansel and Gretel without the breadcrumbs—how do you find your way back home? Well, updates in privacy policies have essentially eaten those breadcrumbs, leaving marketers feeling a bit peckish for
data. READ MORE
FIND A WAY: THE TRUE BIG CREATIVE
Get the creative narrative right, and you’re more than halfway there, regardless of the media strategy. Of course, in those days the targeting choices were very limited, as broadcast reach was highly concentrated. With limited channels and the
Internet in the realm of DARPA researchers, it was easy to reach just about everyone but far more difficult to persuade those to whom the ad was particularly relevant. Targeting in those days was best performed in special interest magazine publishing (we miss Soap Opera Weekly).
Wrong Way Fast forward to the Internet era. The data hustlers had a new war cry: creative/schmeative!
READ MORE
PRIVACY MASQUERADE: ARE TECH GIANTS PLAYING US FOR FOOLS?
Our personal details are the coin of the realm — and we find ourselves at an odd juncture—a privacy parade, bustling and vibrant, with tech titans and data brokers waving the banners high for data
protection and user privacy. Yet, if one dares to peek behind the elaborate floats and the glossy brochures, the truth is not so festive. It’s a parade, alright, but one that marches to a tune that’s far more complicated than it appears.
READ MORE NOW
THE ALCHEMIST’S GUIDE TO STREAMING: TRANSMUTING PIXELS INTO GOLD
In the dim-lit rooms of 90s family homes, the familiar drone of a cable box would hum in the background, anchoring households to one shared reality: the televised
world.
There was a certain comfort, a certain predictability to the rhythmic switch between channels. But as time pressed on, that comfort faded, the predictability lost to the maddeningly vast digital universe of streaming. “Canceling cable was liberating,” said a friend recently, their voice wistful, “but now? Every night is a dissertation defense on what to watch next.” Megan Halscheid, a bespectacled woman in her mid-thirties with an analytical mind,
once noted on Digiday that we, as humans, are insatiable in our thirst for content, always seeking more. READ MORE NOW
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